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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 67

Washington Commanders 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to CHI 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 26 for 11 yards (39-J.Reaves). WAS-39-J.Reaves was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.16 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model