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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 67

Chicago Bears 30 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to WAS 20, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP