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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 4

Chicago Bears 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +3.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.06 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.23 EP