4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 96

Dallas Cowboys 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to SF 48, Center-44-T.Sieg. 3-R.McCloud to DAL 38 for 14 yards (44-T.Sieg).

The Three Options

GO -3.49 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.00 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 96, worth -5.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -3.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 53, worth -3.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model