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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 58

Dallas Cowboys 7 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to SF 6, Center-44-T.Sieg. 3-R.McCloud ran ob at SF 18 for 12 yards (40-H.Luepke).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.06 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP