4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 59 yards to DAL 15, Center-46-T.Pepper. 42-D.Vaughn to DAL 25 for 10 yards (20-A.Thomas; 30-G.Odum).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.97 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model