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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 7 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.21 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model