Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 88

Dallas Cowboys 10 – San Francisco 49ers 42

(5:03) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to SF 34, Center-44-T.Sieg. 3-R.McCloud to SF 46 for 12 yards (33-D.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.98 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 88, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model