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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 36

San Francisco 49ers 42 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 32-T.Davis-Price right end to DAL 40 for -4 yards (46-M.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.99 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP