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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to DAL 21, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.91 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP