Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 78

Dallas Cowboys 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(7:02) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to SF 30, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.92 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model