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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 11

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 1-G.Joseph 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.56 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP