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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to MIN 29, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 4-B.Powell. PENALTY on KC-31-N.Jones, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.61 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model