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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(5:06) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 44-J.Metellus. 32-T.Chandler right end pushed ob at KC 33 for 15 yards (23-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.17 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model