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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 19

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(12:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison to KC 9 for 10 yards (35-Ja.Watson).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.09 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 19, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model