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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 4-B.Powell to MIN 31 for 3 yards (22-T.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.37 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -0.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 30, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model