4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 43

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(6:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 3-J.Addison to KC 32 for 11 yards (6-B.Cook).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.61 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model