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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 55

New York Giants 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to MIA 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-44-N.McCloud. PENALTY on MIA, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 45 - No Play. Miami challenged the too many players on field ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to MIA 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-44-N.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.38 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP