4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 49

New York Giants 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to MIA 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model