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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 22

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:04) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model