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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 44

New York Giants 10 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 6-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to MIA 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.40 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model