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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 19

New York Giants 10 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.11 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 19, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model