Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 31 – New York Giants 13

(12:50) 16-J.Bailey punts 20 yards to NYG 49, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.01 EP
56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model