4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 33

New York Giants 13 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 9-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.68 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model