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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 37

New York Giants 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.15 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model