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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 5

Denver Broncos 7 – New York Jets 5

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 5, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP