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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to DEN 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYJ-52-S.Eguavoen at DEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -2.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model