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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 4

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 8

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 16-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP