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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 12

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 9-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model