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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 4

New York Jets 18 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 9-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 4, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP