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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 31

New York Jets 21 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 9-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.89 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP