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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 60

New York Jets 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to DEN 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model