4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to ARI 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 41 for 16 yards (6-T.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.81 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model