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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 37

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.95 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model