Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 12-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to LA 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-A.Trammell to LA 32 for 8 yards (47-E.Turner). PENALTY on LA-26-D.Shelley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model