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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 6

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 8-B.Maher 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.40 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 6, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP