Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 26

(4:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep middle to 14-Mi.Wilson to LA 49 for 26 yards (14-C.Durant).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.06 EP