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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to ARI 7, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.25 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model