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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 26 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.81 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model