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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(1:20) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short left to 2-M.Brown to ARI 38 for 9 yards (26-D.Shelley) [99-A.Donald].

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.80 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -2.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model