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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 53

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to LA 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-A.Trammell pushed ob at LA 41 for 29 yards (12-B.Gillikin).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.22 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -3.18 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model