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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 11

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(:15) 8-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model