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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 3 – Baltimore Ravens 15

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to BAL 17, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.86 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model