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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 46

Baltimore Ravens 15 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(:12) 11-J.Stout punts 37 yards to TEN 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-K.Philips MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 11, RECOVERED by BAL-53-D.Phillips at TEN 11.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.71 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP