Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 69

Baltimore Ravens 18 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to TEN 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-K.Philips to TEN 24 for 8 yards (26-G.Stone; 53-D.Phillips). PENALTY on TEN-28-S.Carter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at TEN 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.18 EP
67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model