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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 13 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.44 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model