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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 8

Tennessee Titans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 6-N.Folk 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +3.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.72 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 8, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP