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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to MIA 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model