Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 14 – Miami Dolphins 14

(5:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to MIA 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model