Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 21 – Carolina Panthers 14

(14:47) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to CAR 30, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model